March 2020. The ceasefire in Idlib is, like many previous Syrian truces, unlikely to hold. It will not stop the suffering of hundreds of thousands of displaced and terrified people who remain cut off from adequate humanitarian relief and medical aid. It will not solve the refugee crisis on Europe’s borders, nor will it bring justice to victims of numerous atrocious war crimes. This shoddy backroom deal, a stitch-up between the authoritarian leaders of Russia and Turkey, does not end the war. It does not affect the Syrian regime’s determination to retake control of “every inch” of the last rebel-held province, by whatever means. This bloody denouement has merely been postponed. What the ceasefire pact does do is further reinforce the grip of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, whose power to dispense life and death in Syria on a whim now goes unchallenged by the west. It effectively recognises territorial gains made by Syrian and Russian forces in three months of murderous, criminal attacks on Idlib’s people. The ceasefire also gets Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, off the hook after at least 60 Turkish soldiers died last month in fighting with Syrian and Russian forces. As was the case last autumn, when Turkish forces invaded Kurdish areas of north-east Syria then let the Russians in, hapless Erdoğan has again advanced Moscow’s objectives.
Mar 2020. Ceasefire in Idlib Part 2
